Online direct lending, including P2P lending, had its worst month in its history in January 2026, with investors losing money overall for the first time For the first time since the 4thWay PADL Index started in July 2014, lenders lost money overall over the course…
In 2025, while P2P and online lending made “just” 6.77% after costs and write-offs, the stock market returned a huge 24.5%(1) for investors, after estimated investing costs. Plus, the 4thWay P2P And Direct Lending Index (PADL) now has two new constituents – Somo and CapitalStackers….
Annualised returns after costs and losses have averaged 7.49%, with no losing months. The graph above is not smoothed but actual results over time. I note that, if all write-offs from bad debts were squashed into the same period of time, it would have meant…
Four years ago – spring 2021 – marked the beginning of the quick rise in inflation, eventually peaking at an annual rate of 9.6% by October 2022. It remained very high in historical terms till September 2024. While it has fallen substantially now, it’s still…
However, I’m not going to remind you what the latest property-price forecasts from the UK’s best-known economists are for 2025 or the next 12 months. If you want to know, you’ll have to look them up yourselves. Here’s why… What happened in 2024? To start…
December 2024 had the most write-offs since July 2014 at about £4 million, but the interest paid outweighed that, so the month was still positive overall. That nudged up the year’s return to end on 7.61%, after costs and all losses. The 4thWay Peer-to-Peer…
Investors in peer-to-peer lending and other online direct lending have more than doubled their money in 10 years, while cash ISA savers grew their pots by just one-fifth. Cash ISA savers failed to keep up with inflation, while online lenders comfortably outpaced it. Returns on…
The 4thWay Peer-to-Peer And Direct Lending Index (PADL Index) enables investors to compare long-run returns to shares and other asset classes. Constituents’ returns have massively outpaced the stock market. In the ten years since start of the index, annualised returns after costs have been…
The 4thWay Peer-to-Peer And Direct Lending Index (PADL Index) enables investors to compare long-run returns to shares and other asset classes. Constituents’ returns have massively outpaced the stock market. In the ten years since start of the index, annualised returns after costs have been…
As of 30th June, 2024 The new 4thWay Peer-to-Peer And Direct Lending Index (PADL Index) was launched in August 2024. It enables investors to compare long-run returns to shares and other asset classes. Constituents’ returns have massively outpaced the stock market. In the ten years…
Falls in house prices in seven of the past 10 months (according to both Halifax and Nationwide) have not perceptibly impacted overall annualised lending results at P2P lending platforms. While price changes can have delayed effects, the future also looks very healthy for lenders using…
Nationwide says we’ve just had four months in a row of falling property prices. To some people, that means there are more falls to come. My colleague has expressed his views on that in a separate piece. But some peer-to-peer lending accounts seem…
We don’t get soooo much interest from 4thWay readers when we write about the social and environmental impacts of P2P lending. Our focus is on the risks, rewards, growing your wealth, or earning an income from money lending. Understandably, that’s what you’re most interested in….
Lenders who subscribe to 4thWay are asking about P2P borrowers’ ability to pay back their P2P loans, while their home mortgage costs are going up. Rising rates can also potentially knock house prices down, so I’m covering that too. Especially with latest headlines on falling…
This article was originally the introduction and background to a piece called P2P Lending: How To Deal With Rising Interest Rates. But it got too long, so those tips on lending through rising rates now has its own page. In contrast, the page you’re reading…
When you’re locked into lending at lower rates P2P lending is almost invariably fixed-rate lending. Your existing borrowers aren’t going to start paying you more just because rates today are going up. Your cash is tied to that and it’s not partaking in any increases….
Today I want to look at how to prevent permanent lending losses caused by such things as recessions. 4thWay often alerts its subscribers in its newsletter if there are signs that a P2P lending website is lowering its standards, e.g. by accepting more borrowers with worse…
Naturally, we can’t know the answer to the question in the title precisely, because every major economic event is unique, coming with different causes, different factors happening at the time. However, investors need to invest – and lenders need to lend – with a large…
In autumn last year, inflation had doubled in six months to 3%, which prompted me to write The Impact Of Inflation On P2P Lending Results. Another six months or so have passed, and the inflation rate has more than doubled again, hitting 7.8%. This means…
The UK annual inflation rate has risen to 3%, after dropping below the 20-year average of 2% (or, rather, 1.999%) for 21 months in a row up to April 2021. With many countries have recently seen rising inflation, and with nearby Germany recently reporting a…
